Baccarat Card Counting: Tips and Strategies

While everyone is aware that blackjack card counting works, few are aware that baccarat card counting may also be a powerful technique. Because 바카라 (baccarat) is played from a shoe, the odds for each bet type will change as the cards are dealt; therefore, it is possible to put a wager in baccarat with an edge over the house by following the cards.

How Does Baccarat Card Counting Work?

Baccarat card counting is well-known, as previously stated. Players maintain a watch of the shoe so that they may boost their bets when the edge shifts in their favor. They can play more successful hands this way.

High-value cards, such as face cards, benefit the player, and low-value cards, such as twos and threes, help the dealer. The balance between high and low cards will shift as more cards are dealt. If, for instance, more low-value cards are sold in the beginning rounds, the remaining cards in the shoe will have a higher proportion of high-value cards to low-value cards. A card counter will begin to gamble more at this stage since they have a higher probability of getting dealt blackjack (which will usually have an enhanced payout of 3:2).

After developing his technique in the 1960s, Dr. Ed Thorp practically wrote the book on card counting. Thorp’s original card counting method, known as the 10 Count System, was the first publicly known mathematically verified system. It is also a reasonably straightforward system. It just takes a mental count of zero to begin, followed by +4 for low-value cards and -9 for high-value cards. The greater the sum, the more you should wager. You should wager less if the count hits 0 or negative digits.

The fundamental issue with Thorp’s approach is that it only works with single-deck games, which are difficult to come by. His technique, however, spurred other mathematicians and blackjack specialists to create their own systems. Thorp invented another method, the Hi-Lo Count, which is still regarded as the most powerful card-counting system for beginners.

Baccarat Card Counting Fundamentals

Unfortunately, card counting in baccarat is not as simple as in blackjack. In blackjack, players prefer to see low-value cards leave the shoe while high-value cards stay. In baccarat, however, it is less evident which cards are advantageous to players.

A natural in baccarat is a two-card hand worth nine points. However, there is no increased payoff for the writing; thus, the incentives for predicting when a natural will be dealt with are greatly diminished. “Despite the similarities between baccarat and blackjack, the beneficial circumstances revealed by perfect card counting algorithms are insufficient to make the game favorable,” said Dr. Ed Thorp. He said, “…no practical winning strategy for the Nevada game is achievable, even with a computational machine playing a faultless game.”

Others have agreed with Thorp. In his book The Theory of Blackjack, Peter Griffin stated that even the finest baccarat counters in Atlantic City (which has a more permissive shuffle point than Las Vegas) will only make $0.70 per hour and will need to gamble $1,000 on cheerful expectation hands to do so.

As a result, even though baccarat is dealt from a shoe and card values may be tracked, baccarat card counting is far less helpful than blackjack card counting. Nonetheless, Thorp and Griffin both mention baccarat card counting tactics, and some systems have been devised, so we’ll look at some of them.

Baccarat Card Counting Instructions

Baccarat card counting determines whether the Banker or the Player has a higher probability of winning. It is pointless to contemplate the Tie bet. Before you begin counting, find a table with a fresh 6 or 8-deck shoe, as starting with a new shoe allows you to monitor cards from the beginning and gain more information.

Baccarat card counting is pretty simple, and no cards must be memorized. You only need to do some simple arithmetic. When you start the shoe, you begin with a count of 0. You add one to the count when you see an ace, two, or three dealt from the shoe. If you are dealt a four, you must add two. These cards indicate that going to the Player bet is more likely. Because cards five, seven, and eight reduce the likelihood of the player’s bet winning, you must remove one whenever one of them occurs. If you get a six, you should remove two. There is no need to keep track of the remaining cards (the 9, 10, J, Q, and K) because they have no effect on the total.

The essential idea of the approach is that as the count grows, you are more likely to start betting on the player position, and as the count decreases, you are more likely to bet on the banker position. When employing the above-described technique, you will have a running count in your brain; nevertheless, divide the total by the number of decks remaining in the shoe to determine the accurate count. With only six decks remaining and a running count of 30, the precise count is only five, which is low. If just two decks stay and the running count is 30, the actual count is 15. You must make a player bet if the exact count is 16 or above.

Thorp’s Baccarat Card Counting System

Dr. Ed Thorp created a little more difficult baccarat card counting system than the one described above. He also stated that his baccarat card counting approach takes several rounds to become effective. Depending on whether you wish to wager on the Banker or the Player, the strategy involves different calculations.

To put the Player bet, remove one when twos and threes are dealt, two when fours and fives are sold, one when sixes and nines are dealt, and two when sevens and eights are dealt. You do nothing if you are dealt tens, face cards, or aces.

You do the reverse if you wish to put the Banker bet. When handed twos, threes, and fours, add one, add two when given fives, deduct one when dealt sixes, eights, and nines, and subtract two when sold sevens. Again, you do nothing if you are handed tens, face cards, or aces.

John May’s Card Counting System for the Tie Bet

John May is a well-known and highly regarded baccarat author. He argues that the only worthwhile kind of baccarat card counting is that dedicated to the Tie bet. Ties in baccarat are incredibly unusual, which is why they pay considerably more than the Player or Banker bets.

May points out that there are only five possible hand totals (zero, two, four, six, and eight) if no odd cards are left in the shoe. This means you have a 62% average lead and a 33% likelihood of a tie. His method for locating these scenarios is straightforward. Simply begin with zero counts and add one for each odd card dealt. When the count hits 160, the average distribution of cards provides a massive 62% advantage, and it is time to place the Tie bet.

The Effect of Taking a Card Out

A brilliant place to start when constructing card-counting techniques is to consider the effect of eliminating any particular card from the  game. This entails examining the impact on the house edge of each card value destroyed in 바카라 (baccarat). A negative score indicates that removal harms the player, while a positive value shows that it benefits the player. Because the deals are so few, multiplying them by 10 million makes them easier to work with, as seen below:

These can then be used in tandem with a card-counting approach. Start with three 0’s and increase the value of each card by thrice. For instance, if the first card dealt is a 6, the Banker count would be -1132, the Player count would be 1128, and the Tie count would be -11595. To determine if a bet is lucrative, divide the count by the number of cards left in the deck. A stake has a zero house edge when the Banker count is 105791, the Player count is 123508, and the Tie count is 1435963. These counts are rare, but when they do occur, a profit is made.

Card Counting the Dragon 7 Side Bet in EZ Baccarat

Dragon Seven Side, Bet Card Counting in EZ Baccarat EZ Baccarat, is different from regular baccarat in that the Banker bet is risk-free (this is why it is sometimes simply called No Commission Baccarat). As a result, there is a minor adjustment in the rules: a wager on the Banker position that wins with three cards totaling 7 will push instead of winning.

While most side bets should be avoided, Dragon 7 is an exception since there are ways to count cards for it and determine when it will be lucrative. If the Banker’s hand wins with a total of seven from the first three cards, the Dragon 7 side bet pays 40:1.

To win on a Dragon 7 wager, the dealer must not draw a third card when holding an 8 or a 9. As these cards are withdrawn from the shoe, the edge shifts in favor of the player. Having many lower-value cards is also advantageous since cards 1 through 7 can assist bring the dealer’s ultimate total to 7. A card counting system may be built by examining the effect of deleting each card value on the house edge.

Starting with a count of zero, remove 1 when the system deals with fours, fives, sixes, and sevens, and add 2 when eights or nines are sold. If any other card is dealt, you take no action. You should do nothing if any other card is dealt. Place your money on the Dragon 7 if the proper count is four or more. Remember that the actual count is calculated by dividing the total by the number of decks still in the shoe. This issue shouldn’t affect more than half a percent of hands.


By now, it should be evident that 바카라 (baccarat) card counting does not provide the same benefits as blackjack card counting. Even if everything is done precisely, the earnings will be little. However, it is a pretty simple procedure with certain advantages.

Furthermore, there are times when a side bet, like the Dragon 7 side bet, is really valuable and may assist ensure extra prizes. In other words, there’s no need to incessantly count cards, but it can’t hurt.